Post by account_disabled on Dec 14, 2023 0:40:58 GMT -5
Thai elections 2023 The election and government transition will not have a negative impact on the Thai economy in the first three quarters of 2023 because the Budget Act for fiscal year 2023 (2023) will cover disbursement. Disbursing the government budget until the end of the third quarter of 2023 and allowing government agencies to carry out policies and projects that have already been determined as usual. There is also an acceleration of budget disbursement and bringing matters into the process. Consider before the dissolution of Parliament. In addition, the Thai economy will still receive support from money during the election campaign.
The negative impact will begin to be more evident in the 4th quarter of 2023 due to the uncertainty of the timing Phone Number List for approving the Budget Act for fiscal year 2024, resulting in additional money to support the economy from the government. Not much, and the urgent policies of the new government will have an impact on the economy starting in 2024. The Thai economy in 2024 will face high uncertainty from the formation of a new government. If the election and government formation go smoothly, it will result in policies to stimulate the economy and government budget funds to fully support the economy in 2024. On the other hand, if elections and government formation cannot go smoothly
It may result in a government that does not have full authority having to perform its duties for an unreasonably long time, and the enactment of the Budget Act for fiscal year 2024 will be very delayed. This has a negative effect on the economy. SCB EIC estimates that there is no scenario in which the government will be formed with a chance higher than 50%. The scenario in the case where the Liberal Party forms a government. In the case of a two-party coalition government And in the case of a minority conservative government, all three of these scenarios have a very similar moderate chance of occurring. For the other two scenarios, where the conservative side forms a government. And in the case of a Prime Minister who is not on the list, there is some chance of this happening.
The negative impact will begin to be more evident in the 4th quarter of 2023 due to the uncertainty of the timing Phone Number List for approving the Budget Act for fiscal year 2024, resulting in additional money to support the economy from the government. Not much, and the urgent policies of the new government will have an impact on the economy starting in 2024. The Thai economy in 2024 will face high uncertainty from the formation of a new government. If the election and government formation go smoothly, it will result in policies to stimulate the economy and government budget funds to fully support the economy in 2024. On the other hand, if elections and government formation cannot go smoothly
It may result in a government that does not have full authority having to perform its duties for an unreasonably long time, and the enactment of the Budget Act for fiscal year 2024 will be very delayed. This has a negative effect on the economy. SCB EIC estimates that there is no scenario in which the government will be formed with a chance higher than 50%. The scenario in the case where the Liberal Party forms a government. In the case of a two-party coalition government And in the case of a minority conservative government, all three of these scenarios have a very similar moderate chance of occurring. For the other two scenarios, where the conservative side forms a government. And in the case of a Prime Minister who is not on the list, there is some chance of this happening.